Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 21.949173 23.245284 24.614419 26.174718 27.911446 29.794388 32.002772
2026-01-25 19.771923 21.532630 23.486015 25.835983 28.616979 31.843617 35.932800
2026-02-01 18.352174 20.322046 22.573444 25.375628 28.827242 33.021758 38.642484
2026-02-08 16.972790 19.007240 21.380154 24.404627 28.238616 33.060240 39.804495
2026-02-15 16.550082 18.767748 21.414164 24.880571 29.425728 35.383728 44.178809
2026-02-22 16.092367 18.439772 21.295215 25.123749 30.294453 37.330867 48.256905
2026-03-01 15.304143 17.652397 20.543931 24.479772 29.899903 37.464045 49.630481
2026-03-08 14.182348 16.397076 19.136174 22.884951 28.084376 35.408618 47.346814
2026-03-15 13.860968 16.137879 18.990871 22.960089 28.585522 36.741002 50.600838
2026-03-22 13.607459 15.950233 18.923282 23.126950 29.215058 38.304923 54.449759
2026-03-29 13.270704 15.638794 18.674428 23.022660 29.432178 39.238823 57.327897
2026-04-05 13.062757 15.485183 18.625572 23.190103 30.055361 40.862753 61.723973
2026-04-12 12.728559 15.203710 18.459173 23.281963 30.731944 42.922486 68.014994
2026-04-19 12.263717 14.735816 18.024603 22.971591 30.781450 43.980978 72.719427
2026-04-26 11.824834 14.279190 17.575817 22.599143 30.679441 44.730530 76.937435
2026-05-03 11.283554 13.661762 16.872566 21.799419 29.805993 43.950628 77.339144
2026-05-10 11.154568 13.601973 16.952235 22.191674 30.949722 47.126497 88.758823
2026-05-17 10.977352 13.466031 16.912841 22.391640 31.777925 49.823868 100.272521
2026-05-24 10.602092 13.039049 16.431254 21.861491 31.265879 49.675217 103.180541
2026-05-31 10.019394 12.305559 15.479310 20.540663 29.255424 46.150299 94.230671
2026-06-07 9.859140 12.163502 15.391069 20.603148 29.752649 48.076638 104.117255
2026-06-14 9.729269 12.059259 15.352895 20.741819 30.397835 50.432204 116.996412
2026-06-21 9.546258 11.872923 15.184248 20.655163 30.610763 51.837178 127.283929